The Halving is Not Priced in, Here’s Why

As a follow up to Nic Carter’s excellent breakdown of the efficient market hypothesis, and PlanB’s piece addressing the market’s evaluation of the risks in Bitcoin, I go through the reasons I feel the market both is very unwilling and unconfident about the consequences of the halving, and therefore sees it not as “known information,” but more a blind gamble.

For diving deeper into the many topics and works that I brought up, here are the links of all those I remembered:
• Nic Carter’s “Introduction to the Efficient Market Hypothesis”—Introduction-to-the-Efficient-Market-Hypothesis-for-Bitcoiners-Nic-Carter-eac03b
• PlanB’s “Efficient Markets and Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow”—Efficient-Markets–Bitcoins-Stock-to-Flow-PlanB-eaco0i
• Hayek’s “Use of Knowledge in Society” [Part 1 & 2]—Use-of-Knowledge-in-Society-Part-1—F–A–Hayek-e43pfj—Use-of-Knowledge-in-Society-Part-2—F–A–Hayek-e444k0
• Parker Lewis’s “Bitcoin is Not Backed by Nothing”—Bitcoin-is-Not-Backed-by-Nothing-Parker-Lewis-e9v1rs
• Hoppe’s “Yield From Money Held Reconsidered”—The-Yield-From-Money-Held-Reconsidered-e2ndqn
• Conner Brown’s “Bitcoin Has No Intrinsic Value, & That’s Great!”—Bitcoin-Has-No-Intrinsic-Value—Thats-Great–Conner-Brown-e43bcm

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Guy’s Take – Bitcoin & the 7th Great Disruption of the Digital Age

Bitcoin isn’t just a token you can send and receive online, it isn’t just a digital money, its a complete inversion of the idea of money in the same way that the internet changed the nature of information.  To understand exactly why, we need to look at the previous major societal disruptions brought about by the Digital age, and we can begin to see where Bitcoin will fit into the big picture.

1) Mail & Connecting
2) Publishing & The Web
3) The Infrastructure Inversion
4) Ecommerce
5) The New Media
6) Collaboration & Crowd Sourcing
7) New Money & Permissionless Finance

Don’t miss a fun exploration through the history of the internet and the role that Bitcoin will play in establishing ground for a second chapter in the Digital Age!

Further Reading/Listening mentioned in the episode:
Szabo’s essential work, Shelling Out: The Origins of Money (no commentary)—The-Origins-of-Money-e2ndom
(with commentary)
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4

The Incredible Iterative Capital Thesis: What’s Really Driving the Cryptocurrency Phenomenon—-The-Iterative-Capital-Thesis-e2u7qq

And numerous excellent books that I’ve pulled together on the Bitcoin Survivor’s Book List:

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