Efficient Markets & Bitcoin’s Stock to Flow

“A first reaction could be that it is a great investment opportunity. A better reaction (from an EMH and non arbitrage point of view) would be that it is too good to be true.” – PlanB

If the efficient market hypothesis requires that known events be priced in, then how could the S2F be a model for Bitcoin’s price? When such an obvious and unchanging piece of information is available, shouldn’t the market price it in? Continuing with the foundation laid from yesterday’s article, we read Plan B‘s piece on what a risk & return model might tell us about the market’s pricing of Bitcoin ahead of the halving.

Drop some applause on the original article at the link below and don’t forget to follow @100TrillionUSD (PlanB) if you haven’t already!
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107

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Introduction to the Efficient Market Hypothesis for Bitcoiners

“So is the halving “priced in” or will it be a catalyst for appreciation? […] I consider it patently absurd that a change in issuance would have been overlooked by the price-setting entities.”  – Nic Carter

You are definitely gonna want to hear Nic’s incredibly thorough argument as to why in this article! Breaking down the EMH, its origins, the many different iterations of the concept, & how best to frame it in the context of a real world market; Nic gives us another excellent work that is a must listen for all Bitcoiners.

Don’t forget to drop some applause on the original article below, and follow Nic on Twitter!
https://medium.com/@nic__carter/an-introduction-to-the-efficient-market-hypothesis-for-bitcoiners-ed7e90be7c0d

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Hayek’s ‘Use of Knowledge in Society’ [Part 1-2]

Hayek’s ‘Use of Knowledge in Society’ [Part 1-2]

Is the idea of a central decision maker for the economy just a problem of gathering all the right information and having the most intelligent in control? Or is there a far more fundamental problem with the entire notion?

Continuing our Bitcoin economics week, today we dive into a piece on a concept we haven’t yet covered. What is the true nature of the knowledge involved in economic activity, and how do we utilize that knowledge to solve the problem of economic organization?  A brilliant work by F.A. Hayek made available by the amazing team over at FEE.org, we read and expand on Hayek’s “Use of Knowledge in Society.”

Visit the full piece, and the collection of other great work, economic analysis, news, & more over at fee.org.
https://fee.org/articles/the-use-of-knowledge-in-society/#0

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The brilliance of the price system is in coordinating the values, deeply limited knowledge and scarce resources precisely to their highest value need without having to understand or be aware of every single change in supply, alternatives, and uses of those resources among the economic participants.  It is specifically because we only receive the most important piece of information, its new value in relation to other things (the price), that we can so quickly align ourselves with the new state of the world.  

Don’t miss the conclusion of Hayek‘s work, The Use of Knowledge in Society.

Visit the full piece, and the collection of other great work, economic analysis, news, & more over at fee.org.
https://fee.org/articles/the-use-of-knowledge-in-society/#0

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